The dilemma we face as oil prices continue to follow the market down is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t one.  We’ve all been thrilled to see the pump prices dropping below the $3.20 per gallon level here in the northeast, and hope that trend continues.

The other edge on that oil sword, though, is the price per barrel level below which it is not economically viable to pursue offshore drilling.  Actually, that is only half the sword’s edge, the other being the greater temptation to increase consumption again because of the lower gas prices.

Crude prices peaked in July at $147.27 per barrel, and today November delivery prices closed at $74.54, the lowest price since August of last year.  Opec members are scheduled to meet later this year to discuss reducing crude production to stabilize prices in order to keep pace with reduced demand.  While that may result in a market adjustment to price, a downward trend in the meantime reduces enthusiasm for opening up new drilling fields along the US coastlines.

Back in July as prices were peaking, we wrote about the threshhold price levels above which that offshore drilling and shale recovery made good economic sense.  Those levels are $60 per barrel and $70 per barrel, respectively.  The motivating factor beyond profit is, as widely discussed, to reduce American dependence on foreign oil.

Oil dependence is little different than alcohol addiction in the sense that it’s just hard to say no to that first drink, or gallon in the case of gas.  The lower the price, the greater the usage, and thus the increased demand.  The motivation to develop alternative energy sources is lowered at that point, too, as everyone’s memory fails them.

Those in our generation clearly remember the gas lines of the 1970s, and the odd/even days you were allowed to sit in line to fill your tank.  Yet, how quickly we forgot that when availability increased and prices stopped rising precipitously.  That was more than 30 years ago, and we find ourselves in the same vicious cycle all because of our forgetfulness and unwillingness to pursue solutions.  We chose, instead, to “see the USA in our Chevrolet,” as that old slogan sang.

We’re close enough now to that first threshhold below which there will no incentive to recover oil from shale.  If the downward market brings us too close to the lower threshhold, the incentive to drill in the recently opened offshore fields disappears, too.  Our dependence on foreign sources remains.

Increased oil prices caused that first few innings of rising prices for everything else.  Trucks need the fuel to deliver groceries and so much more, and the costs were passed on early to consumers at the grocery store and beyond.  That daily commute to work became more and more expensive, and other means of transportation were sought.

If the price continues to fall, we’ll be back in our cars again, forgetful as always once pressure is off.  F. Scott Fitzgerald’s closing line in Gatsby comes to mind:  “And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

The national amnesia needs to be resisted this time around.  Efforts underway toward alternative energies must be pursued vigorously, and momentum should not be lost.  Yes, oil is only one piece of the economic turmoil puzzle, but it affects so many more pieces on Main Street. It should not be overlooked by those who live on Main Street.