Wonderful news came from the White House today that Mr. Happy has lifted an executive order banning offshore oil drilling, an order originally signed in 1990 by his father, President George H.W. Bush. John McCain supports the lifting of the ban, while Barack Obama believes it should be left in place.

Mr. Happy called this “one of the most important steps we can take” to reduce the ever-increasing price we are paying for gasoline today. He also told us that the only thing standing between the American people and offshore oil reserves is action from the U.S. Congress.

All it took was the stroke of his mighty pen to lift that order and good news is ours to have. What is that old saying that anything sounding too good to be true usually is? The market seems unphased by his actions, oil prices did not come down, and the price at the pump is at an all time high notwithstanding the lifting Truth be told, the action is purely symbolic and is not going to have any effect on what we pay now, tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.

Mr. Happy claims the only thing standing between those reserves and our benefit is Congressional action. That’s a wee bit short from the truth, too, frankly. Oil industry analysts and experts suggest it will be at least three years, and perhaps as long as six years, before any offshore oil came to market. In the meantime, people need to get through this winter when the price of home heating oil is expected to be $5 per gallon or more in the northeast, let alone the price of gas today.

So, it actually is Congress and three to six years standing between the American people and those oil reserves. Let’s see if there is anything else in the way of what we have been promised.

From an economic standpoint, oil must be priced above $60 per barrel to make deep shelf drilling profitable, and over $70 per barrel for oil from shale recovery in the Green River basin in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Oil prices today are around $145 per barrel, and with the emerging markets of China and India, it’s likely prices will remain high. Thus, the economics seem to be in place to make both off-shore and shale recovery sources profitable.

The individual states will have something to say about what takes place off their shores, though, and some of them might not be in the mood to risk their shores for something that may or may not matter three or six years from now. The Green River Basin neighbors might resist efforts there, too, as it will strip the land pretty clean. That is not to advocate resistance from shoreline or inland states; rather, it’s simply to point out they might present obstacles, too.

Let’s add states’ rights to the list of things standing between the American People and those oil reserves,  and, let’s remove from the list economic factors as impediments. Where does that now leave us?

If the objective is to decrease and eventually eliminate America’s dependence on foreign oil, and that alone, it might make sense. If the expectation is that oil prices will fall dramatically, it makes less sense. From a practical standpoint, it can’t fall below $70 per barrel for there to be a significant increase in barrels per day output. That’s half what the price is now, but pressures from emerging markets are going to eat into that increase in barrels per day output over time, those markets again being China and India.

It’s just not as simple as he makes it seem. Congress, three to six years, and states both on the shore and inland actually stand between us and those oil reserves. His gesture is as substantive as air, and seems to be good form only to those who still believe in him, an ever-falling percentage among us as time goes on. Speaking of time, he has 189 days remaining in office, and we can probably expect more symbolic and otherwise worthless gestures till the end. With no bully pulpit to stand behind, or aircraft carrier to stand on, it gets harder and harder to fool people.